“Shared expectations lead to predictability.”
- Risk assessment: a functional way to plan for the future – and the holidays…
Q. I’m confused matching CDC and state guidelines to actions needed during the current COVID-19 surge. Can someone help?
A. If you haven’t recently watched TV or read the newspapers, the number of COVID-19 cases has been dramatically increasing! Here are some recent Connecticut headlines:
- “Experts: Surge could last at least another month”1
- “As surge increases, hospital cases spike”1
- “UConn places entire Storrs campus under quarantine”[1]
- “Virus case sends state’s top Dems into isolation”1
- “Outbreaks stem from dining, worship, homes”1
There really is surge in cases, and each day the number of new cases increases exponentially. Over time, the risk of contracting COVID-19 is rapidly growing.
But what do we do about it? Guidelines exist from the CDC, and the State of Connecticut:
- Three basic actions are advised when outside and people other than within your household are present:
- Keep socially distant – at least 6 feet away from other people.
- Wear a cloth face covering – a mask.
- Wash hands frequently for 20 or more seconds or when this isn’t possible, use hand sanitizer.
- Indoor gatherings have guidelines that limit the number of people present. For example, here are a few:
- Commercial venues for meetings, parties, – 25 people.
- Private residences – 10 people.
- Religious gatherings – 50% of capacity up to 100 people.
- Fairs &, festivals – maximum = 25% of previous year.
These guidelines are based on the situations where people gather, and primarily serve to assist sponsors of events and investigating agencies to determine compliance. But they are conflicting and confusing for individuals trying to remember as they move from location to location. And they change as each sequential phase is reached.
When someone rationally decides to go to their church service with 90 people present and no one there becomes infected, it is easy to consider going to a banquet hall for a 50th wedding anniversary party with 50 people attending, which guidelines indicate is “unsafe.” Who can remember what the limits are for each kind of event?
Risk management recognizes that risk is variable. There is no interaction with another person that is 100% COVID-19 safe. Likewise, there is no way that one can predict with certainty that they will become infected. Between these extremes, risk can increase or decrease depending on the actions one takes.
If risk is variable, then risk management should not be based on a memorized list of dozens of different situations. Instead, safe procedures should be based on a foundation of habitual actions, like always putting on a seat belt when getting into a car. Then vigilance is needed to adapt to different circumstances. While driving wearing a seatbelt, one slows down when an erratic driver is spotted ahead, or when the roads are icy. Regarding coronavirus-19, a person becomes infected when a concentration of virus enters their mouth, nose or eyes. The three basic measures – social distancing, mask wearing and hand hygiene – should become habitual whenever one is outside of the home. Vigilance over the surroundings can then lead to additional adaptive behavior. With an upsurge in the number of cases, the chance of contacting someone with the disease increases. One can then be more vigilant reducing the number of people that are present in various activities. For upcoming holiday celebrations, limiting the number of friends and families who come will not only consider the increased risk of loved ones becoming infected, it also reduces the possibility that the one person who is infectious without showing symptoms will not be there. If continued vigilance shows that community surge presents a greater risk, one can take other actions, remembering to always use the three basic habits whenever possible: masks, social distancing and hand hygiene.
- Provide for air exchange allowing outside air to flow in:
- Open windows and use fans to exchange air
- Use a tent with side flaps open enough to allow air exchange
- Using Plexiglas shields where people are required to be less than 6 feet apart
- Serving food or tending a bar
- Purchasing an air purifier with a HEPA filter.
- Must have a High-Efficiency Particulate Absorbing (HEPA) filter
- Ultraviolet light systems are not deemed as effective
- Different levels of room sizes are available
- Check for the frequency of complete room air exchange over time
- Limiting attendance to members of the household living at the site
Perhaps we’re not really having “pandemic fatigue,” but rather “vigilance fatigue.”
- WREN Laboratory based in Branford Connecticut has a new saliva-based test.
Q: Is there a COVID-19 test that I can use at home?
A: WREN Laboratory has just received an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for its self-administered PCR diagnostic saliva test. This is the first approved test of its kind that provides a collection system, a color coding indicating the collection has been completed and stabilized, and then does the actual analysis. It takes about a teaspoonful equivalent of saliva spit into a tube. This does not require medical worker assistance. It is being marketed to schools, sports teams and other groups that need continuous testing. It has a reported accuracy of 99%, and is designed to stay “on a shelf” for up to 12 months. The test results are usually available electronically within 24 hours. The cost is reported to be $150 per test. Further information is available at https://www.wrenlaboratories.com
154. Commercial mink farms are hit hard because COVID-19 infects this animal.
Q: Is there any more information about pets and other animals contracting COVID-19?
A: There are about a dozen mink farms in the US, mostly in Utah, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Approximately 15,000 of the furry creatures have been killed by COVID-19, including 10,700 mink at just 9 American farms. Research has shown that the mink probably had been infected initially by a human being. Mink are raised in farms where the animals are in very close contact with each other causing the disease to spread rapidly. Workers have then become infected by contact with the animals. The problem is not limited to the U.S. A study conducted in the Netherlands showed that 68% of the workers and their close associates on mink farms became infected. Fear had been expressed over the possibility of mutations of the virus in the mink population and that this may have caused a surge in the number of human cases. However, it was later found that the disease has not yet spread this way. Large scale mink farming also exists in Denmark. The Danish government had announced it would kill all of its 17 million animals to help curtail a potential surge in human COVID-19 cases. The economic impact of this led to a very strong reaction. Denmark later retracted this idea and research continues.
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Ideas for future bumper stickers: “We isolate now so when we gather again, no one will be missing.” “If vigilance becomes a habit, it will be easy to remember good actions.” “It is better to be patient than to be a patient.” |
[1] Hartford Courant, November 11-15, 2020
